UPDATE (21-Dec-2013): SPX Downside? Actually new highs ~

The SPX closed the week @ 1775.04 > very close to the opening price on Friday.  Resistance above @ ~1780 have been approached twice in short timeframes.  General sense is there is likely to be more downside weakness with next support @ ~1750.  Watching and learning.

UPDATE December 21:  While some downside was experienced (to 1767.99), the SPX rebounded strongly, and closed on Friday @ 1819.56 after touching 1823.75 bolstered by taper and employment talk.  This far eclipses previous highs at 1813 a couple of weeks earlier.  If there is a pullback, 1810-1812 should act as support.  Price action has continued to be more than a little schizophrenic, even with the VIX hovering at its baseline @12-14 (recent peak 16 and closing outside BB in October @ 20+).  In more ways than one, this is uncharted territory.  The general sentiment across the globe and a variety of indicators are suggesting another bull run is in the making.  Watching and Learning.

SPX has potential downside > 1779.80 < > 1746.20 ~ WATCH ~ Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - http://t.co/thgwMkmxzH

— Peter Jalkotzy (@Tahoe58) December 11, 2013

A trade in CHINA: An update from my perspective

China has remained a central focus in any discussion that talks of global health and wellness.  Either the challenges with it's population or the continued growth model that spawns stories of empty cities, and skyrocketing property values, purely on speculation.  The average Chinese savings rate is claimed to be 50%, considerably more than the global average of 20%.  Significant policy changes are underway.  There is a strong expression by the leadership to better control corruption.  Some rather historic examples are making their way through the system.  There is a strong drive to boost domestic consumption.  One of their most significant challenges is environmental degradation, and particularly clean fresh water and air quality.  With expectations to continue forward at 6-7% growth, these challenges will only become more severe and more difficult to manage for China.  And there is a contingent of global financiers  that have continued to call for the fall of China's economic prowess.  Jim Chanos remains steadfast in his view.

And yet amongst that continuing storyline, there are stories running in parallel that are focused on the likelihood that changes within China will lead to the continuation of this past pattern of growth - current forecasts remain in the range 6-8%.  And the weekly charts below for FXI and SSEC support that notion - there is the potential for both of these instruments to break out above their descending trendline originating in October '08.  Price has been respectful of that line on both charts with many touches and resistance.  Price can certainly continue within the compressed channel, so there are many other potential outcomes.  Which outcome has the highest probability? and aligned by high reward with the least risk?  Watching and learning.

The Magic of Fibonacci Series Numbers (TEDTalks)

Has your favorite coffee beverage gone down in price? (WSJ and FINVIZ)

Historically, coffee prices (ICO Composite Indicator) have been above $1.00/lb though through the 90's a new low was established at $0.41 in 2001 and stayed low through 2004 before accelerating and peaking in 2011.  Today's price hovers above $1.00/lb.

Coffee continues to express all sorts of weakness since peaking in 2011.  Recent news suggests that coffee stores are flush (circa 2009) and prices are not expected to rebound anytime soon.  The crop forecast for Brazil (producing 1/3 global supply) is also good into next harvest (mid-2014).  Expectation by some traders is price will remain depressed until demand recovers, and may hit $100 before there are any substantial improvements in global price.  (WSJ September 2013)

With prices as depressed as they have been, you would think that the price of a cup at your favorite outlet might adjust - though that depends on how much of a cup of coffee is affected by the price of the raw materials - which in many cases is not significant.  The rise in price of energy (i.e., transportation, roasting, etc.) and other factors has likely offset any advantages from lower raw material costs.  Another factor is that companies like Starbuck's negotiates their own coffee supply and prices through private contracts.

Watching and learning.  Trading on.

COFFEE: A global consumer staple?

Presented below are a weekly price charts for Coffee.  And a daily chart of  ICE - SPOT price and JO (Coffee ETF) (Breakpointtrades.com).  Not yet at historical lows, and volume pattern is negative.  Worthy of placing to the Watch List.

FLOORED: Pit Trading and the Advent of The Bots

UPDATED: October 23, 2013 Another look at WTI XOIL

UPDATED: October 23, 2013 > Crude has expressed considerable weakness and has broken through previous resistance > next resistance at $93-94/bbl - watching and learning.

I have been part of conversations in the last couple of months where the price of oil has been the topic.  In Calgary, this is a very important topic.  Regardless of all efforts to 'diversify' the economy, the energy business is king.  And when the king falters or advances, so does Calgary's momentum.  I posted previously on a compressing triangle in the long term price of Crude (HERE).  That pattern resolved cleanly and price has continued within its new pattern.

The noted conversations have included predictions of oil to crater completely from over supply, to spiking again from global tensions and potential for disruptions to supply.  Technically, the price of oil at the moment is in the middle of a very large ascending triangle - that could resolve to a measured move of $45 > up to $160.  To achieve that, $112 resistance has to give way > as well as exceeding previous record high @ $147.  Alternately, if weakness in price continues as it has since August 2013 @ $112 > levels to watch include breaking decisively below $100 > breaking decisively below descending trendline / and consequently ascending trendline > and a lot of price volume around low $80's.

Downside breakouts are less rewarding and less likely to occur.  Upside breakouts have higher reward and greater likelihood of achieve measured targets.  Watching and learning.  Trading On.

GOOG gaps UP Huge!

Quarterly results lead to a huge move from below $900 -> to over $1000/shr - BIG BIG day for GOOG (+13.83%).

UPDATED 19-September-2013: EUR:USD > Pattern unfolding ~ Where to next?

UPDATE: September 19, 2013 > this pattern has been thoroughly broken at this point.  A succesasion of higher highs, and higher lows suggests this is going higher.  I had seen a headline yesterday that referenced 1.37 as a target.  The short is gone - for now.

UPDATE 3-August-2013:  Below is a daily chart of the EUR:USD.  This pattern remains in play, however, as noted below - the longer these patterns play out without actually resolving in the anticipated manner - the lower their likelihood of doing so also goes.  Interestingly, in this pattern, we now have a smaller HS pattern developing within the larger one.  That might be prescient.  But price must respond with a fairly dedicated fall to lower values.  Watching and learning.  Trading On.

UPDATE: July 21, 2013:  Price hit a low of 1.275, and has pushed higher again, into the 1.31's, closing at 1.313 but rejected at 1.320 and pushed to a lower high the following day (1.317).  While the pattern remains in place, the longer and less definitive the pattern becomes, the validity of it also erodes.  Watching and learning.

UPDATE July 4 2013: MAX pain has been averted for now ~ lots of factors to phuk with this trade still ~ watching and learning, trading on!

UPDATE: June 14, 2013
This trade has been going in the opposite direction ~ 1.325 was a horizontal barrier ~ currently at 1.334 ~  it will be interesting if the strength continues and whether or not the trend line offers any resistance.  Watching and Learning.  Trading On.

I was listening to a radio show this morning @moneytalks.net.  Specifically, the commentary of a guest on the show interested me.  The view presented was that the USD will again strengthen considerably, and the guest's view forward included a severe change in the EUR:USD relationship.

Looking at a weekly chart, there is a large H&S (~ July 2012) pattern developing.  With the guest comments including a potential low of EUR:USD@1.10 > this is a plausible scenario.  The common themes to this position are the central bank and related government policies and actions, the resultant public and private debt and deficit scenarios, and the belief that this cannot be perpetuated.

If my trading has taught me anything ~ everything, every scenario, every instance, every event ~ has a probability.  And generally the smallest probabilities have the largest consequences.  Know your consequences, and execute your trade according to your limits.

It's not what happens but what happens next that is important.  Watching and learning.  Trading On ~

UPDATED: US Dollar ~ DXY0 ~ Channelized, but where to next? (August 3, 2013)

There has been considerable talk about the US$ and its recent strength.  The dollar is within a BAR (Big-Ass-Range that extends from 76 < > 86 ~ what's next?  There is also a strong sentiment that the US economy is improving, fundamentals are showing that there is sustainable strength < > Really?  My trading style sees price being in the middle of a range and therefore has the potential to go either way, while there is some reasonable and credible evidence for either direction.  Below are a Daily and Weekly Chart for the DXY0 ~ Watching and Learning

UPDATED August 3, 2013:  the channelized price pattern has continued to play out as might be anticipated.  Price remains within the previous range.  Of note, price made a higher low and would suggest strength could be next.  Watching and learning.  Trading On.

UPDATED 16-June-2013:  The daily and weekly charts below continue to tell a familiar story.  The USD remains channelized, though I adjusted the upper bound to more reflect reality.  At its current position, relatively difficult to assign a good probability on a move ~ expressed weakness has been exhibited since late May.

UPDATED:  Price has stalled and oscillated here.  On the daily chart price has broken up and back down numerous times across this trend line - and even gapped up over it on March 18.  Since then price has fallen back to the line and rebounded higher again, only to retreat again.  Possibly a  precursor to a more powerful move.  However, the last price action was decidedly weaker, and while closing above, had penetrated below the last low.  Watching and Learning.

UPDATED: Potential new right shoulder?

NatGas: Futures, ETFs and Options - Where to next?

NYMEX Natural gas futures have essentially flatlined since the dramatic drop from the highs achieved in 2007-08 close to $14/mmBtu.  Investment in Shale gas and natural gas assets continues make headlines.  The world is awash in supply of natural gas, and climate change is not helping matters - though the added expectations of air quality management and omnipresent air conditioning is also a factor.  BElow are two alternate investment vehicles, an ETF and Options path for NatGas investments.  I also follow Encana.  The small green arrow points to when Randy Eresman stepped down.  Does NatGas have a strong future?  Watching and Learning.

UNG - The investment objective of UNG is for the changes in percentage terms of the units%u2019 net asset value to reflect the changes in percentage terms of the price of natural gas delivered at the Henry Hub, Louisiana, as measured by the changes in the price of the futures contract on natural gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange that is the near month contract to expire, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case it will be measured by the futures contract that is the next month contract to expire, less UNG's expenses. 



NGX - The Natural Gas Index is designed to measure the performance of highly capitalized companies in the natural gas industry involved primarily in natural gas exploration and production and natural gas pipeline transportation and transmission.

UPDATE2: VIX Weekly Chart

VIX (Volatility Index) has fallen below a rather significant trend line.  As noted, this has happened numerous times in the last 4+yrs since the 07-08 market moves.  What does it mean?  Maybe nothing, but certainly a circumstance worth monitoring.  Should VIX continue below this trend line, the markets may tend to remain strong and positive.  Watching and Learning.

UPDATE2:  VIX has rebounded and penetrated the 'gap' and retreated back to the trend line.  What is next?  A surge to close the 'gap'?  A retest of the trend and exploding up after a recent higher high? OR break back down and make another new lower low?  OR meander along this trend line for a while?  Continuing with Watching and Learning.

UPDATE (Jan 19, 2013):  two factors have emerged - there has been decisive movement below the trend line including back tracing and there is a large 'gap' above that might have to be filled at some time.  

Dec 22, 2006 VIX hit a low of 8.46.  Watching and learning.

UPDATE(2): Messy IHS measuring 100+ pts? SPX Hourly chart

UPDATE 3: This pattern has pretty much failed though with the current euphoria and mis-allocated capital, who the heck knows!  Was crawling along the top then broke below the trend line.

UPDATE (2):  The 'messy' IHS has continued, and looks less likely of following through, however, that potential remains a possibility.  Watching and Learning.  

UPDATE:

ORIGINAL POST: