I have been part of conversations in the last couple of months where the price of oil has been the topic. In Calgary, this is a very important topic. Regardless of all efforts to 'diversify' the economy, the energy business is king. And when the king falters or advances, so does Calgary's momentum. I posted previously on a compressing triangle in the long term price of Crude (HERE). That pattern resolved cleanly and price has continued within its new pattern.
The noted conversations have included predictions of oil to crater completely from over supply, to spiking again from global tensions and potential for disruptions to supply. Technically, the price of oil at the moment is in the middle of a very large ascending triangle - that could resolve to a measured move of $45 > up to $160. To achieve that, $112 resistance has to give way > as well as exceeding previous record high @ $147. Alternately, if weakness in price continues as it has since August 2013 @ $112 > levels to watch include breaking decisively below $100 > breaking decisively below descending trendline / and consequently ascending trendline > and a lot of price volume around low $80's.
Downside breakouts are less rewarding and less likely to occur. Upside breakouts have higher reward and greater likelihood of achieve measured targets. Watching and learning. Trading On.
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