Friday, November 16, 2012

UPDATE: AAPL ~ what's in store (next)? (Mar 4 2013)

AAPL had been on a huge run.  Monstrous gains in a consistent and significant manner.  And their cash reserves continue to grow >$100B.  Their product placement and pipeline remain positive.  So where to from here?  Stock price has declined 25% from late September highs, and has a gap to close at $431.  Today, Seeking Alpha has a piece talking about the circumstances being ripe for AAPL to more fully monetize its patent portfolio > suggesting AAPL is about to realize it's full share potential?  You may notice the two green arrows, these were long price targets on a bounce off the original ascending trendline.  Didn't go there now did it?  Watching and Learning.  Trading On.

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UPDATE 10:  AAPL has both been stronger and weaker in the period since the last update.  $419 has been touched twice thus far.  Analyst opinions are all over the map as to what is next.  I can't recall the last time I saw reference to what they were going to do with the mountain of cash they have socked away.  $50B/YR free cash flow ~ WOW ~ The no news of a dividend is curious.  I've  read Steve Jobs can still be credited for advancing the next two iPhones. That could be good.  iPhone 5 has not been a great winner.  iPad Mini has met expectations I believe.  Market uncertainty ~ global geopolitical uncertainty ~ growth uncertainty ~ be cautious!



UPDATE 9:  AAPL has continued with general weakness after retesting the support trend line above as resistance now.  My original target of $431 has been reached ~ protect all profits and principle ~ keep runners on if you choose.  Where to from here?




UPDATE 8:  AAPL has retreated from a trend line and (again) approached a 'gap' to close.  There has been lots of news on AAPL this past week ~ Einhorn and the shareholder vote related to changing the Articles of Incorporation, and the statement regarding more than 30% of AAPL's share value is in CASH (>$130B) ~ remember the statements a few months back, AAPL was going to be the first Trillion$ market cap company. With market sentiment seeing further downside, what will this mean to this Tech Titan? Watching and Learning.




UPDATE 7:  AAPL have rebounded and is up against a trend line and although having pierced this, it also retraced back below ~ is this a potential zone where the reversal may continue?  Watching and Learning.



UPDATE 6:  The daily chart for $AAPL is exhibiting a loose HS pattern > measuring to $380 and $280, first and second target respectively > with a good probability of a pause at $350-360.  This goes completely against the grain, but technically, this is a plausible pattern.  Watching and learning.




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UPDATE 5:  Certainly any reference to a downside target of $431 (as stated above) was rebuked with a variety guffaws and uncontrolled laughter.  The low price realized thus far is $435 - close enough for the girls we go with.  Now the challenge will be the overhead resistance > and what that will do to price reversion.




UPDATE4:  price bounced from top range of gap to close @ $450/shr _ interesting to see the headline that still claims at this price AAPL is STILL not a buy.  They missed on earning, iPhone sales down - but don't they still have more than $120B in their private hedge fund? Watching and Learning.




UPDATE3:  the $431 gap close may be more realistic than originally contemplated?




UPDATE2:  price has had a healthy bounce, including a gap up (highlighted).  



UPDATE1:  a most interesting close to the day > could mean for some interesting price action for next week.





Thursday, November 8, 2012

UPDATE: SPX Daily Chart - What's Next?

UPDATE:  The S&P500 (SPX) has climbed to dizzying heights is a short period.  The previous high (2007) of 1576 is not that far off with last weeks high of 1530.  The path to these lofty prices has been mostly up, with a rocky start where mid-1300's were tested.  Another break of the uptrend line in Jan 2013 again saw further strength pushing the market forward.  This recent weakness takes price below the narrow steeper channel.  How meaningful that weakness is into the next weeks of trading will have to be measured carefully. Watching and Learning.