tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-50650948027950372812024-03-21T05:31:28.297-07:00Tahoe is Trading OnTrade ideas and their executionTahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-79857449100791170622015-04-18T14:37:00.001-07:002015-04-20T17:49:45.337-07:00UPDATED: XOIL Daily APRIL 2015UPDATE: Apr 20 - today the price gapped up over the ascending trendline of the broadening wedge. Sustainable? Only time will tell. I will be watching for a re-test of the line as support, as opposed to broken resistance.<br />
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I have been less than diligent with my posting here as my energies and focus have shifted and adjusted. My activities trading have not changed nor have my views and approach to analysis. Oil has done what it has done. My post of August 2014 identified the potential start to that waterfall. Oil has currently been making what could be a bottoming process. In my view it looks like a <a href="http://thepatternsite.com/broadb.html">Broadening Bottom</a> which has few attractive attributes for some traders. I like this setup as sooner or later something is going to happen with oil again. The question is timing, trigger, and the power of the move. Watching and learning. Walking on.<br />
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OVX is an oil volatility instrument. The big picture there is there is still room for a settlement of sentiment relative to oil prices and historical volatility.<br />
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<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-20975141248302973762015-03-18T17:47:00.003-07:002015-03-18T17:47:48.219-07:00Thank the FED: The Day Oil had an Orgasm, while the Dollar took a Dump (Finviz)<div style="text-align: center;">
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Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-47290945114449802132014-08-21T17:20:00.001-07:002014-09-03T18:27:03.738-07:00UPDATE: Weekly/Daily XOIL breaks long term trend line > implications?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
UPDATE: September 3, 2014 > price has broken back above the trend > meaning > there is less price congestion at that level and the trend line has lost 'significance' or the price level breach was an incorrect signal, and price must again remain above the trendline. Hammer candle in downtrend could mean reversal. Watching and learning.</div>
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<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-62838208653225071292014-03-21T17:49:00.001-07:002014-04-21T16:28:01.480-07:00UPDATED: SPX 15min/hourly chart Triple Rejection from 1880 level<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b>UPDATED: April 21, 2014</b>: The market has continued to struggle with advancing past this level. While it did make a run for 1900, rejection was swift and unequivocal, including with a confirmatory support has become resistance with the bounce into April 9-10. We're back at that level again. What is the high probability event for you?</div>
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<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-51983037683631243922014-02-07T06:26:00.001-08:002014-02-07T06:26:06.355-08:00So you want to be a market trader? (WSJ)<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The advent of high speed computing has given the edge to more than one aspect of human development. In the financial world, and across global markets, these advantages have been profound. The co-location of trading houses with the exchanges. The installation of direct fibre optic data feeds to the trading desks. And the purchase of direct feeds on news for advance notice of important economic news. These all provide the basis to an infinitesimally small time advantage, but with the sophistication of modern computing, this almost invisible differential can make all the difference. As we have also witnessed, these speeds coupled with automation also can result in majestic losses and dramatic blink of an eye price moves. Watch your stops ~ Trading on.</span><div>
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<a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-financial-markets-stock.html" style="color: #115b8f; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 2.4rem; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;">MARKETS</a></h2>
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<a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304450904579367050946606562?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304450904579367050946606562.html">Speed Traders Get an Edge</a></h1>
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Paying for Direct Access to News Releases Can Give a Lucrative Time Advantage</h2>
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<span class="intro" style="border: 0px; color: #666666; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px 0px 0px -2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By</span> <div class="social-dd" style="border: 0px; display: inline; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
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Feb. 6, 2014 8:49 p.m. ET</div>
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WASHINGTON—High-frequency traders have been paying to get direct access to market-moving news releases, a practice that can give firms the ability to trade fractions of a second ahead of less fleet-footed investors.</div>
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The traders are getting news releases from Business Wire, which distributes corporate-earnings releases and economic reports such as the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's monthly manufacturing survey, and from Marketwired, a Toronto company that distributes earnings releases and the ADP monthly employment report.</div>
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Such direct access isn't illegal. By paying for direct feeds from the distributors and using high-speed algorithms to crunch data and enter orders, traders can get a fleeting—but lucrative—edge over other investors, according to traders and people familiar with the practice. The reason: tiny lags between the time the distributors release the news and when media outlets send them out to the public, including other investors.</div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304450904579367050946606562?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304450904579367050946606562.html">READ FULL ORIGINAL POST AND MORE HERE</a></span></div>
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Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-54459863738228045852013-12-11T09:17:00.002-08:002013-12-21T07:39:55.091-08:00UPDATE (21-Dec-2013): SPX Downside? Actually new highs ~<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The SPX closed the week @ 1775.04 > very close to the opening price on Friday. Resistance above @ ~1780 have been approached twice in short timeframes. General sense is there is likely to be more downside weakness with next support @ ~1750. Watching and learning.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>UPDATE December 21</b>: While some downside was experienced (to 1767.99), the SPX rebounded strongly, and closed on Friday @ 1819.56 after touching 1823.75 bolstered by taper and employment talk. This far eclipses previous highs at 1813 a couple of weeks earlier. If there is a pullback, 1810-1812 should act as support. Price action has continued to be more than a little schizophrenic, even with the VIX hovering at its baseline @12-14 (recent peak 16 and closing outside BB in October @ 20+). In more ways than one, this is uncharted territory. The general sentiment across the globe and a variety of indicators are suggesting another bull run is in the making. Watching and Learning.</span><br />
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SPX has potential downside > 1779.80 < > 1746.20 ~ WATCH ~ Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - <a href="http://t.co/thgwMkmxzH">http://t.co/thgwMkmxzH</a></div>
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— Peter Jalkotzy (@Tahoe58) <a href="https://twitter.com/Tahoe58/statuses/410820335106129920">December 11, 2013</a></div>
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-36735046053703677462013-11-23T08:00:00.000-08:002013-11-23T08:00:23.698-08:00A trade in CHINA: An update from my perspective<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">China has remained a central focus in any discussion that talks of global health and wellness. Either the challenges with it's population or the continued growth model that spawns stories of empty cities, and skyrocketing property values, purely on speculation. The average Chinese savings rate is claimed to be 50%, considerably more than the global average of 20%. Significant policy changes are underway. There is a strong expression by the leadership to better control corruption. Some rather historic examples are making their way through the system. There is a strong drive to boost domestic consumption. One of their most significant challenges is environmental degradation, and particularly clean fresh water and air quality. With expectations to continue forward at 6-7% growth, these challenges will only become more severe and more difficult to manage for China. And there is a contingent of global financiers that have continued to call for the fall of China's economic prowess. Jim Chanos remains steadfast in his view.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">And yet amongst that continuing storyline, there are stories running in parallel that are focused on the likelihood that changes within China will lead to the continuation of this past pattern of growth - current forecasts remain in the range 6-8%. And the weekly charts below for FXI and SSEC support that notion - there is the potential for both of these instruments to break out above their descending trendline originating in October '08. Price has been respectful of that line on both charts with many touches and resistance. Price can certainly continue within the compressed channel, so there are many other potential outcomes. Which outcome has the highest probability? and aligned by high reward with the least risk? Watching and learning.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKNbGTXMbMQlzxkCgFB0G4BgSgMx4XMHhmq3w-tDEk2SxB2dy-zWulwb-baJ_sywVuj5lA6Uu5W6-ZAbSHa8w3DMJFlMjc3wyk3Nrn6sy0RVXJR9mZHHtFJHRVz8BhKLsnubOjrfiEKrk/s1600/FXI+Weekly+23-11-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKNbGTXMbMQlzxkCgFB0G4BgSgMx4XMHhmq3w-tDEk2SxB2dy-zWulwb-baJ_sywVuj5lA6Uu5W6-ZAbSHa8w3DMJFlMjc3wyk3Nrn6sy0RVXJR9mZHHtFJHRVz8BhKLsnubOjrfiEKrk/s1600/FXI+Weekly+23-11-2013.png" height="300" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNb7ULrRqHtycnwbqmwDcu2-bo-rlFtBOfWXeUjWKqcx3lfA-CbVkoAKyywUE0jKrKZvUr8W6cK4ZGyd9fQmFllN6WBIasDSSEodNdXMhcymO0FSBBjJSOI3Ugydi6ZtE_ADzmVVPmqk8/s1600/SSEC+Weekly+23-11-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNb7ULrRqHtycnwbqmwDcu2-bo-rlFtBOfWXeUjWKqcx3lfA-CbVkoAKyywUE0jKrKZvUr8W6cK4ZGyd9fQmFllN6WBIasDSSEodNdXMhcymO0FSBBjJSOI3Ugydi6ZtE_ADzmVVPmqk8/s1600/SSEC+Weekly+23-11-2013.png" height="300" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-40351262782319994952013-11-09T07:01:00.000-08:002013-11-09T07:02:18.206-08:00The Magic of Fibonacci Series Numbers (TEDTalks)<div style="text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" mozallowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" src="http://embed.ted.com/talks/arthur_benjamin_the_magic_of_fibonacci_numbers.html" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="640"></iframe>
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Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-13632853998099173392013-10-29T12:21:00.002-07:002013-10-29T12:44:26.625-07:00Has your favorite coffee beverage gone down in price? (WSJ and FINVIZ)Historically, coffee prices (ICO Composite Indicator) have been above $1.00/lb though through the 90's a new low was established at $0.41 in 2001 and stayed low through 2004 before accelerating and peaking in 2011. Today's price hovers above $1.00/lb.<br />
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Coffee continues to express all sorts of weakness since peaking in 2011. Recent news suggests that coffee stores are flush (circa 2009) and prices are not expected to rebound anytime soon. The crop forecast for Brazil (producing 1/3 global supply) is also good into next harvest (mid-2014). Expectation by some traders is price will remain depressed until demand recovers, and may hit $100 before there are any substantial improvements in global price. (<a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323527004579081421463308170">WSJ September 2013</a>)<br />
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With prices as depressed as they have been, you would think that the price of a cup at your favorite outlet might adjust - though that depends on how much of a cup of coffee is affected by the price of the raw materials - which in many cases is not significant. The rise in price of energy (i.e., transportation, roasting, etc.) and other factors has likely offset any advantages from lower raw material costs. Another factor is that companies like Starbuck's negotiates their own coffee supply and prices through private contracts.<br />
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Watching and learning. Trading on.<br />
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<img height="318" src="http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=KC&cot=083731&p=w1" width="640" /></div>
Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-53602532117554047612013-10-22T07:21:00.001-07:002013-10-25T17:44:07.720-07:00COFFEE: A global consumer staple?<div style="text-align: left;">
Presented below are a weekly price charts for Coffee. And a daily chart of ICE - SPOT price and JO (Coffee ETF) (Breakpointtrades.com). Not yet at historical lows, and volume pattern is negative. Worthy of placing to the Watch List.</div>
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Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-70384579698913930512013-10-20T09:09:00.001-07:002013-10-20T09:09:58.942-07:00FLOORED: Pit Trading and the Advent of The Bots<div style="text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/--H8SY334Zw" width="640"></iframe></div>
Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-31704215969586966252013-10-19T10:07:00.000-07:002013-10-23T06:41:20.989-07:00UPDATED: October 23, 2013 Another look at WTI XOIL<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>UPDATED: October 23, 2013</b> > Crude has expressed considerable weakness and has broken through previous resistance > next resistance at $93-94/bbl - watching and learning.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii9OfKDYzgSvd2bUof-l07aVOQLLcEmkTfRVb_OCbOpXanZvFIchl4_4f5Z26VjkLzAWRCiE1VMxOQd4ZeMoOKoesuNA4LKox1gewnn2uINtidH_9KbsCPg0Ukj6liZtgudDIw1pYnfiY/s1600/XOIL+Daily+23-10-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii9OfKDYzgSvd2bUof-l07aVOQLLcEmkTfRVb_OCbOpXanZvFIchl4_4f5Z26VjkLzAWRCiE1VMxOQd4ZeMoOKoesuNA4LKox1gewnn2uINtidH_9KbsCPg0Ukj6liZtgudDIw1pYnfiY/s640/XOIL+Daily+23-10-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">I have been part of conversations in the last couple of months where the price of oil has been the topic. In Calgary, this is a very important topic. Regardless of all efforts to 'diversify' the economy, the energy business is king. And when the king falters or advances, so does Calgary's momentum. I posted previously on a compressing triangle in the long term price of Crude (<a href="http://tahoe-is-trading-on.blogspot.ca/2012/06/xoil-weekly-chart-26-june-2012.html">HERE</a>). That pattern resolved cleanly and price has continued within its new pattern.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The noted conversations have included predictions of oil to crater completely from over supply, to spiking again from global tensions and potential for disruptions to supply. Technically, the price of oil at the moment is in the middle of a very large ascending triangle - that could resolve to a measured move of $45 > up to $160. To achieve that, $112 resistance has to give way > as well as exceeding previous record high @ $147. Alternately, if weakness in price continues as it has since August 2013 @ $112 > levels to watch include breaking decisively below $100 > breaking decisively below descending trendline / and consequently ascending trendline > and a lot of price volume around low $80's.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Downside breakouts are less rewarding and less likely to occur. Upside breakouts have higher reward and greater likelihood of achieve measured targets. Watching and learning. Trading On.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDZ2uPQtsy_iy7AkGEHsNt1VPzlwZsY4ZnorzTYAoBPAfnEmcQkE2T7JKhxjMUTFeEkFBX3cS8inX_3TGGI_WTtZ_uagD4MeBAJbL9LUmqkoibzq8olly22qNgJ_FB5M08dx92qh9Oruc/s1600/XOIL+Weekly+19-Oct-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDZ2uPQtsy_iy7AkGEHsNt1VPzlwZsY4ZnorzTYAoBPAfnEmcQkE2T7JKhxjMUTFeEkFBX3cS8inX_3TGGI_WTtZ_uagD4MeBAJbL9LUmqkoibzq8olly22qNgJ_FB5M08dx92qh9Oruc/s640/XOIL+Weekly+19-Oct-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-65921769448457127312013-10-18T13:06:00.001-07:002013-10-20T09:20:19.961-07:00GOOG gaps UP Huge!<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Quarterly results lead to a huge move from below $900 -> to over $1000/shr - BIG BIG day for GOOG (+13.83%).</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJg1x1vq054Mag7Xo0Swo0OfHCLcW3dfsjeWuJbaZV0ZGp7KVDH8DYqF1es3T-g-8Y7phlxwE23LNDIXwjLtNlCGxFHALRT29mKbaBURbhEwLrTU8gOlhXp4eBZGC3EOq3WwXVoa5fals/s1600/GOOG+daily+18-10-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJg1x1vq054Mag7Xo0Swo0OfHCLcW3dfsjeWuJbaZV0ZGp7KVDH8DYqF1es3T-g-8Y7phlxwE23LNDIXwjLtNlCGxFHALRT29mKbaBURbhEwLrTU8gOlhXp4eBZGC3EOq3WwXVoa5fals/s640/GOOG+daily+18-10-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-52777968531350207232013-06-08T09:15:00.002-07:002013-09-19T06:03:39.951-07:00UPDATED 19-September-2013: EUR:USD > Pattern unfolding ~ Where to next? <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>UPDATE: September 19, 2013 ></b> this pattern has been thoroughly broken at this point. A succesasion of higher highs, and higher lows suggests this is going higher. I had seen a headline yesterday that referenced 1.37 as a target. The short is gone - for now.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>UPDATE 3-August-2013: </b>Below is a daily chart of the EUR:USD. This pattern remains in play, however, as noted below - the longer these patterns play out without actually resolving in the anticipated manner - the lower their likelihood of doing so also goes. Interestingly, in this pattern, we now have a smaller HS pattern developing within the larger one. That might be prescient. But price must respond with a fairly dedicated fall to lower values. Watching and learning. Trading On.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgx9Y0-0NTym5hcsG48lGNmCM2Reb2yoypamC25-mL7Hu6KciJFnn1h6PGk8HXgx3rS4lckc8N41t5IM_ZgubHXuCPgSjad0lJzvxOHewPvgZcskbN0ZFMtbGLI9bmNZ2brlP752DxOork/s1600/EUR-USD+Weekly+Chart+3-8-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgx9Y0-0NTym5hcsG48lGNmCM2Reb2yoypamC25-mL7Hu6KciJFnn1h6PGk8HXgx3rS4lckc8N41t5IM_ZgubHXuCPgSjad0lJzvxOHewPvgZcskbN0ZFMtbGLI9bmNZ2brlP752DxOork/s640/EUR-USD+Weekly+Chart+3-8-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>UPDATE: July 21, 2013: </b>Price hit a low of 1.275, and has pushed higher again, into the 1.31's, closing at 1.313 but rejected at 1.320 and pushed to a lower high the following day (1.317). While the pattern remains in place, the longer and less definitive the pattern becomes, the validity of it also erodes. Watching and learning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>UPDATE </b>July 4 2013: MAX pain has been averted for now ~ lots of factors to phuk with this trade still ~ watching and learning, trading on!</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNiGtZo4Ki7yCnum4YXiZbF_lCdsXi0GnzzTolIa6vAf-wgVxQvqlISWJWbOXqSIwMafvgG_uacRyaQqiWsICqDqfAnkDBE_ZkfE9pwnHN3ONSGsqxnJqDB8DSmPQDmusZDZMPshqT9G4/s1024/EUR-USD+Weekly+Chart+4-7-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNiGtZo4Ki7yCnum4YXiZbF_lCdsXi0GnzzTolIa6vAf-wgVxQvqlISWJWbOXqSIwMafvgG_uacRyaQqiWsICqDqfAnkDBE_ZkfE9pwnHN3ONSGsqxnJqDB8DSmPQDmusZDZMPshqT9G4/s640/EUR-USD+Weekly+Chart+4-7-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>UPDATE</b>: June 14, 2013</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This trade has been going in the opposite direction ~ 1.325 was a horizontal barrier ~ currently at 1.334 ~ it will be interesting if the strength continues and whether or not the trend line offers any resistance. Watching and Learning. Trading On.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjAO_beAVh6gxP8R3GExOLRdocB7tuegbU36g2oV0eyWjcQ1VSkzWkt0mG3nE4iqkC9rGXxnLb8iWNlHAHi3joXyOWDAwwdAmYQWP9exi41Kwwh-iCe4PNaYGF6OXjaJYLcqsGMM3bmc8/s1600/EURUSD+weekly+14-June-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjAO_beAVh6gxP8R3GExOLRdocB7tuegbU36g2oV0eyWjcQ1VSkzWkt0mG3nE4iqkC9rGXxnLb8iWNlHAHi3joXyOWDAwwdAmYQWP9exi41Kwwh-iCe4PNaYGF6OXjaJYLcqsGMM3bmc8/s640/EURUSD+weekly+14-June-2013.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I was listening to a radio show this morning @moneytalks.net. Specifically, the commentary of a guest on the show interested me. The view presented was that the USD will again strengthen considerably, and the guest's view forward included a severe change in the EUR:USD relationship. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Looking at a weekly chart, there is a large H&S (~ July 2012) pattern developing. With the guest comments including a potential low of EUR:USD@1.10 > this is a plausible scenario. The common themes to this position are the central bank and related government policies and actions, the resultant public and private debt and deficit scenarios, and the belief that this cannot be perpetuated. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If my trading has taught me anything ~ everything, every scenario, every instance, every event ~ has a probability. And generally the smallest probabilities have the largest consequences. Know your consequences, and execute your trade according to your limits.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It's not what happens but what happens next that is important. Watching and learning. Trading On ~</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQo-r_z76os9kdGjW-pqojw9czzGYHymup7-K9ZgKCac7CDLhje-tfnxswkK3FnWO2UF4porFPIiuDZqtDIB_KAv26lUZQul4Gfskiq2WLlth3n72lJ7BPNToTHUy-mjJPh7ZmTfmhZwE/s1600/EUR-USD+Weekly+Chart+8-6-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQo-r_z76os9kdGjW-pqojw9czzGYHymup7-K9ZgKCac7CDLhje-tfnxswkK3FnWO2UF4porFPIiuDZqtDIB_KAv26lUZQul4Gfskiq2WLlth3n72lJ7BPNToTHUy-mjJPh7ZmTfmhZwE/s640/EUR-USD+Weekly+Chart+8-6-2013.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-12606970447807047172013-02-24T10:12:00.000-08:002013-08-03T09:45:48.072-07:00UPDATED: US Dollar ~ DXY0 ~ Channelized, but where to next? (August 3, 2013)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
There has been considerable talk about the US$ and its recent strength. The dollar is within a BAR (Big-Ass-Range that extends from 76 < > 86 ~ what's next? There is also a strong sentiment that the US economy is improving, fundamentals are showing that there is sustainable strength < > Really? My trading style sees price being in the middle of a range and therefore has the potential to go either way, while there is some reasonable and credible evidence for either direction. Below are a Daily and Weekly Chart for the DXY0 ~ Watching and Learning</div>
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<b>UPDATED August 3, 2013</b>: the channelized price pattern has continued to play out as might be anticipated. Price remains within the previous range. Of note, price made a higher low and would suggest strength could be next. Watching and learning. Trading On.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqW-OFwsrzMh0Ps78jySMiHVP7ddWbDDgmWlnzP3TYrlYOvEvJueR58Fg4MHSqA0X_nttdh2rIUOc-vDBhx7jt26Eq7Wya7VB-D3t6wmQv9BOA57RIgHDwTpnkJGxKAQbShZoXWedYAwc/s1600/DXY+Daily+Chart+3-August-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqW-OFwsrzMh0Ps78jySMiHVP7ddWbDDgmWlnzP3TYrlYOvEvJueR58Fg4MHSqA0X_nttdh2rIUOc-vDBhx7jt26Eq7Wya7VB-D3t6wmQv9BOA57RIgHDwTpnkJGxKAQbShZoXWedYAwc/s640/DXY+Daily+Chart+3-August-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>UPDATED 16-June-2013</b>: The daily and weekly charts below continue to tell a familiar story. The USD remains channelized, though I adjusted the upper bound to more reflect reality. At its current position, relatively difficult to assign a good probability on a move ~ expressed weakness has been exhibited since late May.</div>
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<b>UPDATED</b>: Price has stalled and oscillated here. On the daily chart price has broken up and back down numerous times across this trend line - and even gapped up over it on March 18. Since then price has fallen back to the line and rebounded higher again, only to retreat again. Possibly a precursor to a more powerful move. However, the last price action was decidedly weaker, and while closing above, had penetrated below the last low. Watching and Learning.</div>
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UPDATED: Potential new right shoulder?</div>
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<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-78021423812404584342013-02-02T09:18:00.003-08:002013-02-02T09:19:17.345-08:00NatGas: Futures, ETFs and Options - Where to next?<br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img height="318" src="http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=NG&cot=023651&p=w1" width="640" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">NYMEX Natural gas futures have essentially flatlined since the dramatic drop from the highs achieved in 2007-08 close to $14/mmBtu. Investment in Shale gas and natural gas assets continues make headlines. The world is awash in supply of natural gas, and climate change is not helping matters - though the added expectations of air quality management and omnipresent air conditioning is also a factor. BElow are two alternate investment vehicles, an ETF and Options path for NatGas investments. I also follow Encana. The small green arrow points to when Randy Eresman stepped down. Does NatGas have a strong future? Watching and Learning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ung#ixzz2JlG6btQJ">UNG </a>- The investment objective of UNG is for the changes in percentage terms of the units%u2019 net asset value to reflect the changes in percentage terms of the price of natural gas delivered at the Henry Hub, Louisiana, as measured by the changes in the price of the futures contract on natural gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange that is the near month contract to expire, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case it will be measured by the futures contract that is the next month contract to expire, less UNG's expenses. </span><br />
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<a href="http://www.nasdaq.com/options/indexes/xng.aspx" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">NGX </a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">- The Natural Gas Index is designed to measure the performance of highly capitalized companies in the natural gas industry involved primarily in natural gas exploration and production and natural gas pipeline transportation and transmission.</span><br />
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Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-78941506156556852332013-01-16T06:07:00.002-08:002013-02-24T06:33:18.329-08:00UPDATE2: VIX Weekly Chart<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
VIX (Volatility Index) has fallen below a rather significant trend line. As noted, this has happened numerous times in the last 4+yrs since the 07-08 market moves. What does it mean? Maybe nothing, but certainly a circumstance worth monitoring. Should VIX continue below this trend line, the markets may tend to remain strong and positive. Watching and Learning.</div>
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UPDATE2: VIX has rebounded and penetrated the 'gap' and retreated back to the trend line. What is next? A surge to close the 'gap'? A retest of the trend and exploding up after a recent higher high? OR break back down and make another new lower low? OR meander along this trend line for a while? Continuing with Watching and Learning.</div>
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UPDATE (Jan 19, 2013): two factors have emerged - there has been decisive movement below the trend line including back tracing and there is a large 'gap' above that might have to be filled at some time. </div>
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Dec 22, 2006 VIX hit a low of 8.46. Watching and learning.</div>
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<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-36120765067242969412013-01-09T07:29:00.001-08:002013-01-31T18:53:11.253-08:00UPDATE(2): Messy IHS measuring 100+ pts? SPX Hourly chart<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
UPDATE 3: This pattern has pretty much failed though with the current euphoria and mis-allocated capital, who the heck knows! Was crawling along the top then broke below the trend line.</div>
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UPDATE (2): The 'messy' IHS has continued, and looks less likely of following through, however, that potential remains a possibility. Watching and Learning. </div>
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UPDATE:</div>
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ORIGINAL POST:</div>
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<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-68139804740497001642012-12-23T08:51:00.001-08:002013-04-27T11:23:47.720-07:00UPDATED: BKX (Bank Index Fund)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>UPDATE April 27, 2013</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I had anticipated that the bank index would break down to the purple oval and green arrow (<a href="http://tahoe-is-trading-on.blogspot.ca/2012/05/bkx-watchlist-potential-trade.html">HERE is earlier post</a>). Didn't work out that way, and the continued strength in this bank index is somewhat confounding - the banks do not appear to be feeling the brunt of the ever increasing debt bomb - and there are those that think they won't. Current price action has resistance just below $60/shr ~ As always - watching and learning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>UPDATED (13-1-2013)</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The strength above previous resistance suggests this index might be ready for a big move. One strategy could be to take a small position, then wait and see whether or not it tests the line for support from the opposite side. Watching and Learning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I had an early expectation that by August 2012 the banks will have been crushed under the over-leverage and infinite interconnectedness ~ hasn't happened ~ the banks have continued on a fairly stable path though the compressed wedge boundaries are now a possible influence. Watching and Learning.</span></div>
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<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-43302399470060231592012-11-16T05:56:00.001-08:002013-04-05T16:50:16.973-07:00UPDATE: AAPL ~ what's in store (next)? (Mar 4 2013)<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">AAPL had been on a huge run. Monstrous gains in a consistent and significant manner. And their cash reserves continue to grow >$100B. Their product placement and pipeline remain positive. So where to from here? Stock price has declined 25% from late September highs, and has a gap to close at $431. Today, <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/1010201-apple-s-patently-profitable-portfolio?source=email_wsb&ifp=0">Seeking Alpha</a> has a piece talking about the circumstances being ripe for AAPL to more fully monetize its patent portfolio > suggesting AAPL is about to realize it's full share potential? You may notice the two green arrows, these were long price targets on a bounce off the original ascending trendline. Didn't go there now did it? Watching and Learning. Trading On.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span><b style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">UPDATE 10: </b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">AAPL has both been stronger and weaker in the period since the last update. $419 has been touched twice thus far. Analyst opinions are all over the map as to what is next. I can't recall the last time I saw reference to what they were going to do with the mountain of cash they have socked away. $50B/YR free cash flow ~ WOW ~ The no news of a dividend is curious. I've read </span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Steve Jobs can still be credited for advancing </span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">the next two iPhones. That could be good. iPhone 5 has not been a great winner. iPad Mini has met expectations I believe. Market uncertainty ~ global geopolitical uncertainty ~ growth uncertainty ~ be cautious!</span><br />
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<b style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">UPDATE 9: </b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">AAPL has continued with general weakness after retesting the support trend line above as resistance </span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">now</span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">. My original target of $431 has been reached ~ protect all profits and principle ~ keep runners on if you choose. Where to from here?</span><br />
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<b style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">UPDATE 8</b><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">: AAPL has retreated from a trend line and (again) approached a 'gap' to close. There has been lots of news on AAPL this past week ~ Einhorn and the shareholder vote related to changing the Articles of Incorporation, and the statement regarding more than 30% of AAPL's share value is in CASH (>$130B) ~ remember the statements a few months back, AAPL was going to be the first Trillion$ market cap company. With market sentiment seeing further downside, what will this mean to this Tech Titan? Watching and Learning.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>UPDATE 7</b>: AAPL have rebounded and is up against a trend line and although having pierced this, it also retraced back below ~ is this a potential zone where the reversal may continue? Watching and Learning.</span><br />
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<b style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">UPDATE 6</b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">: The daily chart for $AAPL is exhibiting a loose HS pattern > measuring to $380 and $280, first and second target respectively > with a good probability of a pause at $350-360. This goes completely against the grain, but technically, this is a plausible pattern. Watching and learning.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>UPDATE</b></span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><b> 5</b>: Certainly any reference to a downside target of $431 (as stated above) was rebuked with a variety guffaws and uncontrolled laughter. The low price realized thus far is $435 - close enough for the girls we go with. Now the challenge will be the overhead resistance > and what that will do to price reversion.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>UPDATE4</b>: price bounced from top range of gap to close @ $450/shr _ interesting to see the headline that still claims at this price AAPL is STILL not a buy. They missed on earning, iPhone sales down - but don't they still have more than $120B in their private hedge fund? Watching and Learning.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>UPDATE3</b>: the $431 gap close may be more realistic than originally contemplated?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>UPDATE2: </b>price has had a healthy bounce, including a gap up (highlighted). </span><br />
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<b style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">UPDATE1</b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">: a most interesting close to the day > could mean for some interesting price action for next week.</span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
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<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-86984480030798390372012-11-08T14:03:00.001-08:002013-02-24T16:08:15.739-08:00UPDATE: SPX Daily Chart - What's Next?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
UPDATE: The S&P500 (SPX) has climbed to dizzying heights is a short period. The previous high (2007) of 1576 is not that far off with last weeks high of 1530. The path to these lofty prices has been mostly up, with a rocky start where mid-1300's were tested. Another break of the uptrend line in Jan 2013 again saw further strength pushing the market forward. This recent weakness takes price below the narrow steeper channel. How meaningful that weakness is into the next weeks of trading will have to be measured carefully. Watching and Learning.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDj4a-JbgdCW7jTGKLalr6AoUVELCMm1N0JuvltZep4hvfeHyQOpdAy_AzWperyRJCtc2CINJu2Rlhomzxz-ysViwhOK2EpUTPWM4A_VT6UHF0TRqKNUWp8aQ_M4k9pzII_wtNRIoXL5E/s1600/SPX+daily+23-2-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDj4a-JbgdCW7jTGKLalr6AoUVELCMm1N0JuvltZep4hvfeHyQOpdAy_AzWperyRJCtc2CINJu2Rlhomzxz-ysViwhOK2EpUTPWM4A_VT6UHF0TRqKNUWp8aQ_M4k9pzII_wtNRIoXL5E/s640/SPX+daily+23-2-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-5447677140255883252012-10-18T09:48:00.004-07:002012-10-18T09:48:52.994-07:00S&P500 Monthly Chart ~ Price Congestion and Volume Significantly below 50MA<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUzCbZVI0w1o6wTmiUDzCHeEGxAhzNfNydkzoGg5zoq0it9CRmBck9QpbxD-MA2W4-zQRVhyrKTV8-ohG-Dgf_2o8rIrNFbOBw8VuC_m9FPTZjJf-RN3O5F4D1V_VKyhtRJJMJNAbWKw0/s1600/2012-10-18_1045.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUzCbZVI0w1o6wTmiUDzCHeEGxAhzNfNydkzoGg5zoq0it9CRmBck9QpbxD-MA2W4-zQRVhyrKTV8-ohG-Dgf_2o8rIrNFbOBw8VuC_m9FPTZjJf-RN3O5F4D1V_VKyhtRJJMJNAbWKw0/s640/2012-10-18_1045.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-78515421413426980782012-07-30T18:51:00.004-07:002012-07-30T18:51:44.013-07:00CLF Daily Chart 30-7-2012<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTJdCcWkOTvqDU81E-6B3e8ZX1dcBh-Am1AvHoRdiEjOuU-kVG9YfVtsoBpsVOeU8RMFJoOCxd_01NonMoTfC3uAQ4OuoMAyjU66c7qv1LWxmnJd5KRPgE4BoXkNHhtjfS3wpzmFkAW-0/s1600/CLF+Weekly+30-7-2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTJdCcWkOTvqDU81E-6B3e8ZX1dcBh-Am1AvHoRdiEjOuU-kVG9YfVtsoBpsVOeU8RMFJoOCxd_01NonMoTfC3uAQ4OuoMAyjU66c7qv1LWxmnJd5KRPgE4BoXkNHhtjfS3wpzmFkAW-0/s640/CLF+Weekly+30-7-2012.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-74786315545799055772012-07-30T18:46:00.001-07:002013-10-14T10:36:48.925-07:00UPDATE October 14, 2013: EOG Weekly Chart H&S 30-7-2012<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
I am generally a short term trader. Be it that I don't trust the markets, or maybe just don't trust myself, I tend towards intra-day and short swing trades that are driven by technical analysis.</div>
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EOG came to my radar through trading room discussions back in July. On the weekly chart - this issue seems well poised for a long term IHS measured move - a very significant move if realized to its full potential > full measured move to $172/shr.</div>
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<b>UPDATE 14-October-2013</b></div>
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Stopped out 25% of position @$168 ~ remaining 75% now has stop @ $174/shr. I think that the general market sentiment, and that of the energy services industry remains positive.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCc7hZafVPsMh8LLN4nWFH3BPxcqaTzmmA_HXaTK12vk-ncU-pONttvoDccWNVvvigWO_She20y0gPC9fMhmSVJHTYmNpmY8QuRvACzNZB-lENQnzO7_bcEgvDiSC-M2cRXn8oiayG470/s1600/EOG+Weekly+14-10-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCc7hZafVPsMh8LLN4nWFH3BPxcqaTzmmA_HXaTK12vk-ncU-pONttvoDccWNVvvigWO_She20y0gPC9fMhmSVJHTYmNpmY8QuRvACzNZB-lENQnzO7_bcEgvDiSC-M2cRXn8oiayG470/s640/EOG+Weekly+14-10-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>UPDATE 19-September-2013</b></div>
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This trade has continued to play out. The final full measured target of $172 has virtually been achieved. The last several days of trading have price surged up almost to target, and then came off slightly before bouncing into the close today. I have continued with trailing stops ~ currently @ $168 ~ this has been a good trade.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKPslPyDKorSiet2zPCibVT51jPSFg9YDHwUBLX7t88p8A4X0GyQfgGzRO9Yt5Kd0v0X9cfUnBpR5EfuYcnSKP4U9i9Ci3Wh-H70Y1Z5GCRXoWp2d6iSyab-5dvkhm9V4c2x71WfBHczo/s1600/EOG+Weekly+19-9-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKPslPyDKorSiet2zPCibVT51jPSFg9YDHwUBLX7t88p8A4X0GyQfgGzRO9Yt5Kd0v0X9cfUnBpR5EfuYcnSKP4U9i9Ci3Wh-H70Y1Z5GCRXoWp2d6iSyab-5dvkhm9V4c2x71WfBHczo/s640/EOG+Weekly+19-9-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>UPDATE 29-August-2013</b></div>
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The second target of $161 has been achieved (161.47) - rejected - and achieved again (161.32) - and rejected again. I think that regardless of its technical status, the oil and gas service business should remain strong, and continued growth in operations and revenues for EOG should remain positive. Technically, we have a double top. Trailing stop is at $145. Watching and learning. Trading on.</div>
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<b>UPDATE August 3, 2013</b>: This trade has continued to perform well. I have a strong interest further scaling in again as price breaks above previous highs. I would like to see a test of the $150 level to confirm strength. While it has fully closed the gap up over the trend line, price rise has been rather dramatic and likely would benefit from a pause. Regardless of what happens, I continue with trailing stops. We are approaching the full extent of the original trade. Caution is front and center. Watching and learning. Trading On.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh96e8QKeWpwFmeesCP8-CmZVO_KG560XO1MS20NvVAqTWyuDnl6OoyHr6Y_WQ04nojhHks2pD65E_z06iuQHVorpSqhiKpnbyIsHRzw_pudnphgnmsOdx99q3oGqeNZS2g6oVtq_De0DE/s1600/EOG+Daily+3-8-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh96e8QKeWpwFmeesCP8-CmZVO_KG560XO1MS20NvVAqTWyuDnl6OoyHr6Y_WQ04nojhHks2pD65E_z06iuQHVorpSqhiKpnbyIsHRzw_pudnphgnmsOdx99q3oGqeNZS2g6oVtq_De0DE/s640/EOG+Daily+3-8-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>UPDATE: July 21, 2013</b>: It has been almost exactly a full year. This trade has blown through the second target. I removed 50% of my position @ $124, remaining 50% left to run (with a Trailing Stop). Has oscillated above and below the trend line/floor of IHS and then gapped above, closed the gap, and has continued higher. Closed the week @ $147. I am leaning to the continued optimism side, at least through to the fall ~ unless things change dramatically ~ which they could. In eighteen trading days, only three down days - maybe a pullback is in order ($142, $138)? Regardless of the forward position, this has been a good trade. Watching and Learning.</div>
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<b>UPDATE (Jan 19, 2013)</b>: this issue has moved incredibly from my initial small position in the third week of July @$93/shr. I have increased my position as the price has climbed and it has been a most rewarding trade.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQyrBofgOw7FtcARcfSv5zjNh1Q06oDo_U-XYI7t0DPnDRCxM2PlMcFOGzbtQ6_wZk_OcJ2cqP75u1ho6nNpghggLAH_kEeKSIIMrpsshHd7P6Gqrl1r1_SKfaNEy6_9NWwkb6MMLe8Y8/s1600/EOG+Daily+21-7-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQyrBofgOw7FtcARcfSv5zjNh1Q06oDo_U-XYI7t0DPnDRCxM2PlMcFOGzbtQ6_wZk_OcJ2cqP75u1ho6nNpghggLAH_kEeKSIIMrpsshHd7P6Gqrl1r1_SKfaNEy6_9NWwkb6MMLe8Y8/s640/EOG+Daily+21-7-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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With recent news suggesting that the oil and gas services sector is in for a run - this trade may well be one of if not my best trade ever. Watching and Learning.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8WzhAeBUMT8WUfE1s6xBK_A2c0DKSleEfCdgybOXkjLj_XFYwTWW0ohOEZ9LmX_1W8W1nuTd2pmU8ecB1CZh0jIfntb6BXHB_fellnFb2hpk4pHX4L5s9TM6AAljFk3H21zF9ixvltsk/s1600/EOG+Weekly+19-1-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8WzhAeBUMT8WUfE1s6xBK_A2c0DKSleEfCdgybOXkjLj_XFYwTWW0ohOEZ9LmX_1W8W1nuTd2pmU8ecB1CZh0jIfntb6BXHB_fellnFb2hpk4pHX4L5s9TM6AAljFk3H21zF9ixvltsk/s640/EOG+Weekly+19-1-2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5065094802795037281.post-29463937051833822552012-07-29T11:21:00.000-07:002012-09-12T08:58:22.254-07:00UPDATED: TIF Daily Chart 29-7-2012 > Failed Pattern - NO TRADE<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://slopeofhope.com/2012/07/come-to-butthead.html">Tim Knight ~ Slope of Hope ~ Trade Idea</a></div>
<br />Tahoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18148072062947682730noreply@blogger.com0