NatGas: Futures, ETFs and Options - Where to next?

NYMEX Natural gas futures have essentially flatlined since the dramatic drop from the highs achieved in 2007-08 close to $14/mmBtu.  Investment in Shale gas and natural gas assets continues make headlines.  The world is awash in supply of natural gas, and climate change is not helping matters - though the added expectations of air quality management and omnipresent air conditioning is also a factor.  BElow are two alternate investment vehicles, an ETF and Options path for NatGas investments.  I also follow Encana.  The small green arrow points to when Randy Eresman stepped down.  Does NatGas have a strong future?  Watching and Learning.

UNG - The investment objective of UNG is for the changes in percentage terms of the units%u2019 net asset value to reflect the changes in percentage terms of the price of natural gas delivered at the Henry Hub, Louisiana, as measured by the changes in the price of the futures contract on natural gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange that is the near month contract to expire, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case it will be measured by the futures contract that is the next month contract to expire, less UNG's expenses. 



NGX - The Natural Gas Index is designed to measure the performance of highly capitalized companies in the natural gas industry involved primarily in natural gas exploration and production and natural gas pipeline transportation and transmission.

UPDATE2: VIX Weekly Chart

VIX (Volatility Index) has fallen below a rather significant trend line.  As noted, this has happened numerous times in the last 4+yrs since the 07-08 market moves.  What does it mean?  Maybe nothing, but certainly a circumstance worth monitoring.  Should VIX continue below this trend line, the markets may tend to remain strong and positive.  Watching and Learning.

UPDATE2:  VIX has rebounded and penetrated the 'gap' and retreated back to the trend line.  What is next?  A surge to close the 'gap'?  A retest of the trend and exploding up after a recent higher high? OR break back down and make another new lower low?  OR meander along this trend line for a while?  Continuing with Watching and Learning.

UPDATE (Jan 19, 2013):  two factors have emerged - there has been decisive movement below the trend line including back tracing and there is a large 'gap' above that might have to be filled at some time.  

Dec 22, 2006 VIX hit a low of 8.46.  Watching and learning.

UPDATE(2): Messy IHS measuring 100+ pts? SPX Hourly chart

UPDATE 3: This pattern has pretty much failed though with the current euphoria and mis-allocated capital, who the heck knows!  Was crawling along the top then broke below the trend line.

UPDATE (2):  The 'messy' IHS has continued, and looks less likely of following through, however, that potential remains a possibility.  Watching and Learning.  

UPDATE:

ORIGINAL POST:

UPDATED: BKX (Bank Index Fund)

UPDATE April 27, 2013

I had anticipated that the bank index would break down to the purple oval and green arrow (HERE is earlier post). Didn't work out that way, and the continued strength in this bank index is somewhat confounding - the banks do not appear to be feeling the brunt of the ever increasing debt bomb - and there are those that think they won't.  Current price action has resistance just below $60/shr ~ As always - watching and learning.

UPDATED (13-1-2013)

The strength above previous resistance suggests this index might be ready for a big move.  One strategy could be to take a small position, then wait and see whether or not it tests the line for support from the opposite side.  Watching and Learning.

I had an early expectation that by August 2012 the banks will have been crushed under the over-leverage and infinite interconnectedness ~ hasn't happened ~ the banks have continued on a fairly stable path though the compressed wedge boundaries are now a possible influence.  Watching and Learning.

UPDATE: AAPL ~ what's in store (next)? (Mar 4 2013)

AAPL had been on a huge run.  Monstrous gains in a consistent and significant manner.  And their cash reserves continue to grow >$100B.  Their product placement and pipeline remain positive.  So where to from here?  Stock price has declined 25% from late September highs, and has a gap to close at $431.  Today, Seeking Alpha has a piece talking about the circumstances being ripe for AAPL to more fully monetize its patent portfolio > suggesting AAPL is about to realize it's full share potential?  You may notice the two green arrows, these were long price targets on a bounce off the original ascending trendline.  Didn't go there now did it?  Watching and Learning.  Trading On.

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UPDATE 10:  AAPL has both been stronger and weaker in the period since the last update.  $419 has been touched twice thus far.  Analyst opinions are all over the map as to what is next.  I can't recall the last time I saw reference to what they were going to do with the mountain of cash they have socked away.  $50B/YR free cash flow ~ WOW ~ The no news of a dividend is curious.  I've  read Steve Jobs can still be credited for advancing the next two iPhones. That could be good.  iPhone 5 has not been a great winner.  iPad Mini has met expectations I believe.  Market uncertainty ~ global geopolitical uncertainty ~ growth uncertainty ~ be cautious!

UPDATE 9:  AAPL has continued with general weakness after retesting the support trend line above as resistance now.  My original target of $431 has been reached ~ protect all profits and principle ~ keep runners on if you choose.  Where to from here?

UPDATE 8:  AAPL has retreated from a trend line and (again) approached a 'gap' to close.  There has been lots of news on AAPL this past week ~ Einhorn and the shareholder vote related to changing the Articles of Incorporation, and the statement regarding more than 30% of AAPL's share value is in CASH (>$130B) ~ remember the statements a few months back, AAPL was going to be the first Trillion$ market cap company. With market sentiment seeing further downside, what will this mean to this Tech Titan? Watching and Learning.

UPDATE 7:  AAPL have rebounded and is up against a trend line and although having pierced this, it also retraced back below ~ is this a potential zone where the reversal may continue?  Watching and Learning.

UPDATE 6:  The daily chart for $AAPL is exhibiting a loose HS pattern > measuring to $380 and $280, first and second target respectively > with a good probability of a pause at $350-360.  This goes completely against the grain, but technically, this is a plausible pattern.  Watching and learning.

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UPDATE 5:  Certainly any reference to a downside target of $431 (as stated above) was rebuked with a variety guffaws and uncontrolled laughter.  The low price realized thus far is $435 - close enough for the girls we go with.  Now the challenge will be the overhead resistance > and what that will do to price reversion.

UPDATE4:  price bounced from top range of gap to close @ $450/shr _ interesting to see the headline that still claims at this price AAPL is STILL not a buy.  They missed on earning, iPhone sales down - but don't they still have more than $120B in their private hedge fund? Watching and Learning.

UPDATE3:  the $431 gap close may be more realistic than originally contemplated?

UPDATE2:  price has had a healthy bounce, including a gap up (highlighted).  

UPDATE1:  a most interesting close to the day > could mean for some interesting price action for next week.

UPDATE: SPX Daily Chart - What's Next?

UPDATE:  The S&P500 (SPX) has climbed to dizzying heights is a short period.  The previous high (2007) of 1576 is not that far off with last weeks high of 1530.  The path to these lofty prices has been mostly up, with a rocky start where mid-1300's were tested.  Another break of the uptrend line in Jan 2013 again saw further strength pushing the market forward.  This recent weakness takes price below the narrow steeper channel.  How meaningful that weakness is into the next weeks of trading will have to be measured carefully. Watching and Learning.

S&P500 Monthly Chart ~ Price Congestion and Volume Significantly below 50MA