Saturday, June 8, 2013

UPDATED 19-September-2013: EUR:USD > Pattern unfolding ~ Where to next?

UPDATE: September 19, 2013 > this pattern has been thoroughly broken at this point.  A succesasion of higher highs, and higher lows suggests this is going higher.  I had seen a headline yesterday that referenced 1.37 as a target.  The short is gone - for now.



UPDATE 3-August-2013:  Below is a daily chart of the EUR:USD.  This pattern remains in play, however, as noted below - the longer these patterns play out without actually resolving in the anticipated manner - the lower their likelihood of doing so also goes.  Interestingly, in this pattern, we now have a smaller HS pattern developing within the larger one.  That might be prescient.  But price must respond with a fairly dedicated fall to lower values.  Watching and learning.  Trading On.



UPDATE: July 21, 2013:  Price hit a low of 1.275, and has pushed higher again, into the 1.31's, closing at 1.313 but rejected at 1.320 and pushed to a lower high the following day (1.317).  While the pattern remains in place, the longer and less definitive the pattern becomes, the validity of it also erodes.  Watching and learning.



UPDATE July 4 2013: MAX pain has been averted for now ~ lots of factors to phuk with this trade still ~ watching and learning, trading on!



UPDATE: June 14, 2013
This trade has been going in the opposite direction ~ 1.325 was a horizontal barrier ~ currently at 1.334 ~  it will be interesting if the strength continues and whether or not the trend line offers any resistance.  Watching and Learning.  Trading On.




I was listening to a radio show this morning @moneytalks.net.  Specifically, the commentary of a guest on the show interested me.  The view presented was that the USD will again strengthen considerably, and the guest's view forward included a severe change in the EUR:USD relationship.

Looking at a weekly chart, there is a large H&S (~ July 2012) pattern developing.  With the guest comments including a potential low of EUR:USD@1.10 > this is a plausible scenario.  The common themes to this position are the central bank and related government policies and actions, the resultant public and private debt and deficit scenarios, and the belief that this cannot be perpetuated.

If my trading has taught me anything ~ everything, every scenario, every instance, every event ~ has a probability.  And generally the smallest probabilities have the largest consequences.  Know your consequences, and execute your trade according to your limits.

It's not what happens but what happens next that is important.  Watching and learning.  Trading On ~