Tahoe is Trading On: June 2012

UPDATE: August 3, 2013: I suppose at some time I really should just start new post for this trade. But it has had a very interesting development period - so I will remain with updating this post.

XOIL has continued to participate in the technical strength that has taken it above the long term trend line from 2008 highs. Below is the daily chart showing good strength out of the gate/at the break with some but little pause in its ascent. Late July experienced a pullback followed by two strong days before pausing again. The Median price range of the last 18 trading days has been $105.99, including a gap up into the range. This gap has been closed with the decline of late July. In the near term the price has not made a higher high as yet (i.e., needs to exceed $109.32). Preferably, there would be a back test of the long term trend line - but that does not have to happen for price to continue its ascent. Price managed to trade mostly sideways for almost a year from July 2012 (approx. $84-97) > and may very well simply just settle into another BAR (Big Ass Range). Watching and learning. Trading On.

UPDATE 9-July-2013 ~ the strength in oil has continued. A pull back should be anticipated - levels to watch $110 and $114.

UPDATE 4-July-2013 ~ Three green trading days. Wait for pullback ~ look for resistance to become support ~ buy the bounce? Watching and Learning. Trading On.

July 2, 2013 ~ overnight trading has pushed crude oil over and beyond the $100/bbl mark ~ on heavy volume as well. The stability of the move will likely be tested. Watching and Learning. Trading On.

June 14, 2013 > > > It has been almost one full year since I started watching this. And today was the day. Today price exhibited sufficient strength to break the long term trend line originating early 2011. Intraday, trading started strong and paused and shot up $1.00+ in less than an hour and then settled. Futures look like price is coiling for another move (advancing price compression) ~ the next trading days will be important. Continued strength on optimism, then a back test? Watching and learning. Trading On.

April 27, 2013 > > > The price made its way back down to and through the ascending secondary trendline, reversed and closed the week above again. A back test of that secondary trendline would be nice to see before price again sought the upper primary trendline in the vicinity of $97/bbl. This $98-100 level have been significant resistance from last fall and most recently in early April. Below are the Weekly and Daily charts ~ the pattern remains valid for now. Watching and Learning. Trading On.

April 5, 2013 > > > A thing of beauty, I say. :-) Simply gorgeous. These patterns can have powerful resolutions > sometime within the next twelve months (Apr 2014), there is a higher than expected probability of a significant predictable move compared to what we have been experiencing for the last (almost) three years. Or of course something different could happen as well. CYFA. Watching and Learning.

March 3, 2013 > > > the steeper trend line was broken with a continued compression of price, and has stayed within the confines of the gentler narrowing triangle. I read a post recently that is projecting a massive move in oil forthcoming. This technical pattern if maintained with support such a resolution to the extended price compression playing out over several years. Watching and Learning.

November 29, 2012 > Crude has again respected the ascending trendline, for now. Current week price has been repelled again, but remains red > continued weakness and breaking that trendline might make for a more significant move down. Watching and Learning.

October 25 2012 > Crude has demonstrated significant weakness over the past, remained within the price compression triangle, so the prognosis is for a substantive move forthcoming?

False breakout and retrace back through trendline. What's next? Watch closely to see where price will go from here, back down? or continue up? As of posting ~ $92.55 with continued strength.

UPDATE (11-7-2012): the price has continued to follow in the (thus far) anticipated range/path

26-6-2012 - $80/bbl ~ An important level in XOIL dating back into 2006 - the oil market has had some undue influence from the Saudis and Europe's embargo, but struggling demand also contributes to today's view. There is a sense that this is a bottom - or what many (longs?) are wishing for. Watching and learning. Trading On.